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Trillions and Trillions of Dollars

There's rare unanimity in Washington right now. Everyone agrees that our tax system is a wreck. Too many loopholes, too many exemptions, too many carveouts, too much confusion. A friend recently quipped that, as a matter of enlightenment, every member of Congress should be required to do their taxes live on C-SPAN, aided only by a pencil and a calculator. No one leaves until you pass an audit.

Over the coming weeks, a congressional "supercommittee" will try to find more than $1 trillion in deficit savings over the next decade. Part of their job will be -- or should be -- a dramatic overhaul to the tax code. This can be done in a way that appeases nearly everybody. One side says we need lower tax rates. The other says we need more tax revenue. Both can be accomplished fairly easily by eliminating tax deductions and lowering tax rates.

There are literally trillions of dollars in those deductions, which include the ability to deduct mortgage interest, employer-provided health insurance, and contributions to retirement accounts. These deductions are frequently called "tax expenditures." Why? Because distinguishing between a tax deduction and a cash subsidy is difficult. If, instead of allowing mortgage interest to be deducted from taxes, the government wrote homeowners a check based on the amount of mortgage interest they paid, the impact on the economy and government coffers would be exactly the same.

In a report presented to the supercommittee this week, the Congressional Budget Office fleshed out a few numbers about tax deductions. One stat I found interesting: In 2008, total income in the U.S. was $8.4 trillion, yet taxable income was $5.7 trillion. That means over 30% of all income is shielded from tax thanks to various deductions. Just the top three tax deductions will reduce tax revenue by roughly $1.5 trillion between 2010 and 2014. Extrapolate that over the next decade -- as people like to do these days -- and it's many trillions of dollars.

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