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Quarter of Lackawanna County mortgage holders are underwater, RealtyTrac finds

A quarter of the mortgage holders in Lackawanna County owe more for home loans than the value of their property, according to a Los Angeles-area company that compiles real estate data.

Lackawanna County's "underwater" mortgage rate is the state's second-highest, behind a 33 percent ratio in neighboring Monroe County, new data from RealtyTrac show. Luzerne's County's rate is 14 percent.

"Prices have declined so significantly that you get these high percentages," said Austin Jaffe, Ph.D., chairman of the insurance and real estate department at Penn State.

The state's negative equity rate, in which more is owed than a home is worth, is 11 percent, according to RealtyTrac. Residential loan totals are at least 25 percent higher than home values on 28 percent of all mortgages nationwide, affecting 12.5 million properties, the data indicate.

High regional unemployment, decreasing property values and declining real estate sales combine to increase mortgage default potential.

"For the likelihood of default and foreclosure, the biggest predictor is underwater mortgages," Dr. Jaffe said.

RealtyTrac only included 2,237 Lackawanna County mortgages, with 567 underwater. In Monroe County, 8,099 of 24,655 mortgages are underwater and in Luzerne County, 4,055 of 28,916 have negative equity, the data show.

RealtyTrac relies on financial and court records and third-party aggregators for the estimates, and bases property value estimates on comparable real estate sale statistics, company spokesman Daren Blomquist said.

The Lackawanna County data, he said, is an accurate proportion and only would change marginally if a larger sequence was included.

"It should be a representative sampling, even if it's not covering 100 percent of the mortgages," he said.

The Scranton/Wilkes-Barre/Hazleton metro area has had the state's highest unemployment since April 2010 and the jobless rate was 8.9 percent in December. Average property values in the region decreased 11 percent in the year ended in October, according to Core Logic, another Los Angeles-area real estate data company. In 2011, 4,184 property sales were recorded in Lackawanna County, an 11 percent decrease from 2009. During the same period, sheriff's sales of foreclosed homes in the county jumped 58 percent, totaling 372 in 2011.

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